A global memory crisis driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure is set to shrink the PC market by up to 9% in 2026 while potentially delaying next-generation gaming consoles. Memory manufacturers are redirecting consumer-grade DRAM supplies to AI data centers, creating unprecedented shortages that threaten PC affordability and gaming hardware roadmaps.
The International Data Corporation (IDC) issued revised forecasts in December showing PC shipments could decline 4.9% in a moderate scenario or 8.9% in a pessimistic case—significantly worse than November’s 2.4% projection. Consumer prices are rising fast, with Dell and Lenovo signaling increases up to 15%.
AI Data Centers Consume 40% of Global DRAM
The memory shortage stems from manufacturers prioritizing high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production for AI infrastructure over traditional DRAM and NAND chips used in consumer devices. In October 2025, OpenAI secured supply agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix for up to 900,000 DRAM wafers monthly to support its Stargate AI project—representing more than 40% of projected global DRAM capacity.
Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra confirmed the demand surge during the company’s December 18 earnings call. “Over the last few months, our customers’ AI data center build-out plans have driven a sharp increase in demand forecast for memory and storage,” he stated. The company warned that “tight industry conditions” across DRAM and NAND sectors would “persist through and beyond calendar 2026.”
Major chipmakers are racing to expand HBM production capacity. HBM delivers significantly higher bandwidth than standard DRAM, making it essential for training large language models and operating AI inference clusters. The technology commands premium pricing, incentivizing manufacturers to shift production lines away from consumer products.
PC Prices Rising Between 4% and 15%
The supply crunch is hitting PC manufacturers immediately. IDC forecasts average PC price increases between 4% and 8% across the industry, with major OEMs implementing steeper hikes. Dell and Lenovo have communicated potential increases reaching 15% to retail partners and enterprise customers.
The price surge affects both consumer laptops and desktop systems. Memory accounts for approximately 15-20% of total PC manufacturing costs, making DRAM price fluctuations a significant factor in final retail pricing. The shortage comes as PC manufacturers hoped to capitalize on Windows 11 upgrade cycles and AI PC adoption.
Budget and mid-range segments face the harshest impact. Premium devices with higher profit margins can absorb some cost increases, but value-oriented systems have limited pricing flexibility. This could push entry-level laptops above key psychological price points like $400-$500, reducing accessibility for price-sensitive buyers.
Gaming Console Launches Face Delay Risk
The memory shortage now threatens next-generation console timelines. Reports published December 28-29 indicate console manufacturers are evaluating whether to postpone the PlayStation 6 and next Xbox from their intended 2027-2028 launch window.
Industry insider Tom Henderson reported manufacturers are hoping RAM producers will “build out their infrastructure to produce more RAM, thereby allowing prices to drop” before committing to console release dates. Console economics depend heavily on memory pricing since manufacturers typically sell hardware at break-even or slight losses initially.
Both Sony and Microsoft face difficult decisions. Launching with insufficient memory capacity would compromise performance and developer capabilities. Delaying launches risks market momentum and competitive positioning. The companies also must balance memory requirements against other component costs to maintain target retail prices around $500-$600.
Production Expansion Timeline Extends to 2027
Samsung is accelerating construction at its Pyeongtaek semiconductor facility, expediting P4 and P5 production line builds to increase DRAM output. However, semiconductor fab construction and qualification processes take 18-24 months minimum.
Industry analysts indicate meaningful supply relief may not materialize until late 2026 at the earliest, with 2027 more realistic for balanced supply-demand conditions. Memory spot prices have already risen 30-40% since mid-2025, and forward contracts show continued upward pressure through Q2 2026.
The situation could improve faster if AI infrastructure buildouts slow or encounter deployment bottlenecks. However, major technology companies including Microsoft, Google, and Meta continue announcing multi-billion dollar data center expansions, suggesting sustained AI memory demand.
What This Means for Buyers
Consumers planning PC purchases face a narrowing value window. Prices are rising now and will likely continue climbing through mid-2026. Waiting for better deals may prove counterproductive as inventory tightens and manufacturers adjust pricing strategies.
Gaming console buyers face uncertainty. While PS6 and next Xbox announcements haven’t been made official, the memory situation could push next-gen hardware beyond 2028. Current-generation consoles may see extended lifecycles and continued software support.
Enterprise IT departments should lock in memory upgrade pricing now and accelerate planned PC refresh cycles before costs escalate further. Budget planning should account for 10-15% higher PC acquisition costs through 2026.
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Why are PC prices increasing in 2026?
AI data centers are consuming over 40% of global DRAM production capacity, creating shortages for consumer electronics. Memory manufacturers prioritize high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI applications because it’s more profitable than standard PC DRAM. This supply constraint drives memory costs up 30-40%, forcing PC makers to raise prices.
Will the PlayStation 6 and next Xbox be delayed?
Console manufacturers are evaluating potential delays beyond their planned 2027-2028 launch window due to memory shortages and pricing. No official announcements have been made, but industry reports suggest companies may postpone releases until DRAM supplies stabilize and costs decline, likely in late 2026 or 2027.
How long will the memory shortage last?
Industry analysts expect tight supply conditions to persist through 2026, with meaningful relief potentially arriving in late 2026 or 2027. Samsung and other manufacturers are expanding production capacity, but new semiconductor facilities require 18-24 months to build and qualify before reaching full production output.
Should I buy a PC now or wait?
Buying now may offer better value than waiting. PC prices are rising 4-15% currently and will likely continue climbing through mid-2026 as memory costs increase. Inventory may also tighten, reducing options. Waiting could result in higher prices without corresponding performance improvements for equivalent configurations.
